Question – Tasmanian Population Growth

Question asked by the Hon Meg Webb MLC on 4 Nov 2021 and answered by the Leader of the Government on 11 Nov 2021.  

Question

The Premier recently announced that Treasury forecasts predict Tasmania’s population will increase by up to 0.6 per cent.  In light of this prediction, can the Government please advise:

(1)     Will the state budget be adjusted in line with this forecast to provide for the increased impact a larger population will have on state and local government services?

(2)     Has any government department undertaken an assessment or conducted any modelling of what this population growth will mean in its portfolio service areas?

(3)     If so, please advise which departments have undertaken this work and provide copies of these assessments.

(4)     If not, please advise when these assessments will be undertaken and commit to making any assessments public on completion.

ANSWER

In the 2021-22 Budget the Department of Treasury and Finance forecast population to grow by 0.5 per cent in the 2021-22 in year-average terms of 0.6 per cent in 2022-23 in line with the long-term average.  The potential impact of population growth on the state budget is complex, with impacts on revenue sources, as well as additional expenditure requirements to meet service delivery needs.  Whilst over time population growth generally positively impacts the state’s revenue raising capacity, the most significant potential impact is on GST distribution.  The impact of changes in population on GST distribution may be positive or negative, as the distribution is impacted by the state’s relative share of the national population.

In relation to expenditure, as part of the annual budget development process, the Government considers changes in demand and service delivery needs over the budget and forward Estimates period.  Agency budget submissions identify policy initiatives and provide advice to government on service delivery impacts due to demographic population and other issues.  Community consultation also provides an important opportunity for all Tasmanians to provide input into the development of the state budget and reflect community needs.

Community consultation submissions are considered by agencies in the development of agency budget submissions.  Population projections of future growth are used by policy areas across government to inform planning for potential changes in demand in infrastructure and services.

 See more of Meg’s questions to Parliament.